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　　机构：招商证券

　　评级：BUY

　　目标价：44.3 港元

　　2017 results below market consensus and our expectation 1) 2017 shareholders’ net profit totalled RMB5.4bn , up 8.9% YoY. Comprehensive income was RMB6.1bn, compared with RMB2.2bn in 2016. ROE came in at 8.8%; 2) agency-channel regular FYP grew by 19.0% YoY, and regular FYP with payment period longer than 10 years grew by 29.6%, meaning a margin expansion as we expected ; 3) life insurance NBV up 15% YoY in 2017, lower than our expectation of 27% . Life EV up 17% YoY, ~1% lower than our expectation; and 4) there was strong focus on health insurance: health FYP accounted for 35% of total FYP . 

　　Management guidance 1) The company earlier indicated that they targeted a double digit growth in agent headcount in 2018, in order to boost its NBV growth; and 2) according to the company, its regular FYP of protection-type products saw a slight negative YoY growth in Jan 2018 , but the growth may turn positive in 2H18. 

　　Valuation and risk The stock is trading at ~0.6x 18E P/EV. The company’s 2018 life NBV and net profit are below our and market expectation, which may negatively impact on its short-term share price. Our valuation and 2018 financial forecasts are under review. From the long term perspective, we are still positive on the company’s outlook and maintain Buy rating because: 1) we like the company’s strategic focus on health insurance; 2) as a pure life company, it may benefit from the rising 750D-MA for the 10Y government bond; and 3) it is only trading at ~0.6x 18E P/EV . 

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