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富力地产(2777.HK):FY17+results+in+line;sales+growth+guidance+top
发布时间:2018-03-20 09:54 来源:格隆汇

  机构:交银国际

  FY17 results largely in line. Revenue grew 10% YoY to RMB59.3bn and core profit increased 27% YoY to RMB7.59bn, slightly lower than consensus by 1% and 5%, respectively. However, GPM came higher than expected, up 7.1PPts YoY to 35.4% . R&F proposed a final dividend of RMB0.77 cents and fullyear dividend payout reached RMB1.1/share, representing a dividend yield of ~6.7% on 19 Mar closing, largely in line with our expectation.   

  Expect margin to stay high. R&F has locked in RMB45.3bn of sales scheduled for delivery in 2018 and the company expects the GPM will be at ~38%. With ~60% of FY18 locked-in revenue at high margin, R&F expects its GPM will stay at 35-40% in FY18, largely similar to FY17. 

  Sales target >RMB130bn, up >60% YoY. R&F acquired 18.1m sqm of new landbank in FY17 which brought its total landbank to 51.4m sqm by end-17 . Backed by RMB240bn planned saleable resources for FY18, R&F expects its FY18 contracted sales to reach >RMB130bn, or >60% YoY growth. It also gave a 3year sales target CAGR at 54% to reach RMB300bn by 2020, backed by >RMB600bn saleable resources from its current landbank. 

  Hotel portfolio as future catalyst. R&F spent RMB19bn to acquire 74 hotels from Wanda in 2017 which brought its portfolio to 88 hotels in operation by end-17. With over 40 hotels from Wanda just commenced operation after 2014 and not fully ramped up, we expect R&F can gradually improve the operating efficiency to improve profitability. R&F also expects its total operating income from the hotel portfolio to reach >RMB7bn in 2018 vs RMB2.4bn in 2017.  

  Maintain Buy: R&F’s FY17 results were largely in line with expectation, with high dividend payout and GPM surprise, despite slightly slower-than-expected booking.  We believe the sales target will remain the near-term share price catalyst. We slightly adjust our NAV to HK$31.17 on better-than-expected margin and new projects acquired. We maintain Buy rating on the counter with target price adjusted to HK$23.38, representing a 25% discount to our estimated NAV. 

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