机构:交银国际
评级:BUY
目标价:14.00港元
2017 results largely in line: Net profit grew 129% YoY to RMB436m driven by CCM product mix improvement , strong growth from fingerprint module , and higher GPM . Revenue growth moderated YoY with decline in GPM HoH during 2H17, which was largely due to capacity constraint associated with dual-cam ramp-up in 3Q17 and smartphone inventory correction in 4Q17.
Camera module shipment guidance a bright spot: Management guided for CCM shipments to rise 10-20% YoY in 2018, which we believe is positive given softness in Jan/Feb and overall slowdown in smartphone growth. It started to directly supply low-end camera modules to Huawei in 2H17 with the possibility of supplying higherend products this year. We expect customer mix will likely shift towards Huawei/Xiaomi from Vivo/OPPO this year which we view as a positive. Q Tech guided for FPM shipment to rise 20-30% in 2018 which could be conservative, in our view.
Positive outlook intact: We like management confidence on its competitiveness in 3D sensing, further focus in automation and R&D progress in optical fingerprint . We view the possibility of customers requesting to insource the final assembly for dual-cam in low/mid-end handsets as a slight negative, as it could lead to lesser value add for the module suppliers. To us, it is a sign that handset makers are trying to maintain profitability by cutting cost, as the costs of multiple handset components including camera modules and memory have risen significantly over the past two years.
Maintain Buy: We lower our 2018/19 EPS estimates by 11%/6% largely on the softer GPM outlook. Shares trade at 16.1x 2018E P/E based on Bloomberg consensus. Our new TP of HK$14.00 is based on 17x 2018E P/E. Maintain Buy.
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