机构:交银国际
FY17 results satisfactory. Revenue grew 8.5% YoY to HK$118.6bn with core profit up 17.7% YoY to HK$19.2bn, largely in line with consensus of HK$122.8bn and HK$18.8bn, respectively. GPM expanded by 6.6PPts YoY to 40.3%, much higher than consensus of 33.8%. CR Land also increased its dividend payout from 30% to 35% and declared a final DPS of HK$86.7 cents. As a result, full-year DPS was up 37.4% YoY to HK$96.7 cents, higher than consensus by 21.5%.
High-margin revenue locked in. CR Land has secured total unrecognized sales revenue of RMB126.1bn and management has indicated that the GPM for these sales is about 43%. Moreover, ~RMB78.7bn of these unrecognized sales can be booked in FY18 with GPM at 45%. We believe the overall FY18 GPM will likely stay over 40% supported by these high-margin locked-in sales.
Sales target at RMB183bn, up 20% YoY. CR land set its FY18 sales target at RMB183bn and aims to maintain its sales ranking within top 10 in 2018. Management also indicated that increasing asset turnover will be the key mission for the development property segment in 2018.
Hidden gem; IP portfolio continues to grow. As at end-17, CR Land has 26 shopping malls under operation with another 40 malls under construction. 21 shopping malls will commence operation by 2020. Management expects the total rental and recurring income from IPs will surpass HK$10bn and HK$13bn in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
Maintain Buy: We believe CR Land’s results were satisfactory with surprise on margins and dividend. We expect high GPM secured for FY18 and even FY19 will lead to earnings upgrade which support near-term share price, while sales acceleration will also enhance profitability in our view. We raise our NAV estimate from HK$37.78 to HK$40.21 to reflect higher margins achieved and new projects acquired. We maintain Buy rating on the counter with target price adjusted to HK$34.18, representing a 15% discount to our NAV estimate
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